Malaria is still the main public health problem in Africa and particularly in sub-Sahara area. In Nouna (Burkina Faso), transmission of malaria is endemic and perpetual, but with seasonal fluctuations.

On West Africa, the results of coupled climate models (ocean-atmosphere) and using the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), indicate potential for significant changes in the local physical environment. These changes would affect ecosystems, biology and ecology of mosquitoes/vectors (survival, competence, prevalence etc..), and therefore the transmission risk of vectors-diseases in general and malaria in particular.

The two main physical parameters involved in the vectors ecology are rainfall and temperature:

• The abundance of rainfall and especially spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall events will determine the presence and productivity of breeding sites of vectors involved.
• Increasing temperatures cause both gain of vector longevity, reduction of food digestion time and therefore a shorter duration of pathogen development in the vector.

Moreover, climate variability and change could lead vectors to ’colonize’ new areas. In case of malaria, climatic factors influence both on the mosquito biological cycle and its pathogen parasite (Plasmodium).

In same time, low frequencies climate changes (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or AMO, Quasi-Decadal Oscillation or QDO) can modulate the intensity of rainfall in the Sahel (Tourre et al. 2010) and so frequency and occurrence of malaria in Sahel.

Paluclim Project study in detail the relationship between climate variability and change and risk associated with exposure to malaria vectors.

The main objectives are:

– production and validation of environmental risk maps and dynamic risk maps of rural villages population for being exposed to the bites of mosquitoes, vectors of malaria,
– assessing the anthropological part of vectorial bu identifying human practices that favour the emergence of breeding sites (flooded fields, brick ….)
– study the impact of climate variability on prediction risk
– study the effectiveness of the larval and vectorial control strategies as adaptation to malaria risk.

A monthly statistical distribution from the rainfall events and their uncertainties is planned and will be available in a monthly newsletter where you will find seasonal forecasting, frequency distribution of rainfall and risk maps of vectors. A regional climate change, forecast charts and trends in rainfall, including the anthropogenic component will be issued.