Mapping Rift Valley fever and malaria risk over West Africa using climatic indicators

Extract of ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS - 18 August 2010

Published online in Wiley Online Library DOI: 10.1002/asl.296

C. Caminade, [1] J. A. Ndione, [2] C. M. F. Kebe, [3] Y. M. Tourre, [4],L [5] J-P. Lacaux, [6] C. Vignolles, [7] J. B. Duchemin, I. Jeanne [8] and A. P. Morse [1]

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to highlight the recent progress in mapping vector-borne diseases in West Africa using modelling and field experiments. Based on climatic indicators, methods have been developed to map Rift Valley fever (RVF) and malaria risk. Modelling results corroborate that northern Senegal and southern Mauritania appear to be critical areas for RVF outbreaks and that the malaria epidemic fringe is located at the northern edge of the Sahel. Future projections highlight that the malaria risk decreases over northern Sahel. This is related to a southward shift of the potential epidemic belt in autumn.

Copyright-2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Keywords:

vector-borne diseases; malaria; Rift Valley fever; disease modelling; climate change; West Africa

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[1] School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZT, UK

[2] CSE, Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar, Senegal

[3] UCAD, Universit´e Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal A. E. Jones,[1] S. Danuor, S. Tay, [[KNUST, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana

[4] Meteo-France, Department of Climatogy, Analyses et Veille Hydro-Climatique (AVH), Toulouse, France

[5] amont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) of Columbia University, Palisades, USA

[6] OMP – Laboratoire d’aerologie, Toulouse

[7] CNES, Centre National d’Etude Spatiale, Toulouse, France

[8] CERMES, Centre de Recherche Medicale et Sanitaire, Niamey, Niger

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